FTSE China A50 Index Positioning Shift

Investing.com — Positioning in the FTSE China A50 index shifted to a heavily bullish last week, according to Citigroup strategists.

The change is partly due to investors unwinding previously profitable short positions, although more recent activity has seen these unwinds happening at a loss. However, the significant rise in open interest suggests investors are actively increasing their long exposure, adding new risk.

In contrast, positioning in Hang Seng futures had already been extended prior to last week, with flows becoming more mixed in recent days. Despite this, both the FTSE China A50 and Hang Seng indexes are experiencing strongly bullish positioning, with investors boosting their market exposure to China in recent weeks.

> “This does create larger sensitivity to downside surprises from here, but investors have been chasing the market rally and long positions have a large buffer with 22.5% profits on longs on average for A50,” Citi strategists said in a note.
>
> “Even a 20% drop in index levels would leave half the long positions still in profit,” they added.

Meanwhile, US markets saw a dip in bullish sentiment for most of last week, although flows became more constructive on Friday following a positive surprise in US job numbers, which renewed hopes of a soft landing.

In the S&P 500, positioning remains highly extended at +3.0 on a normalized scale of 5, contrasting sharply with the Nasdaq 100, which has hovered near neutral for several weeks.

The Russell 2000 saw the sharpest shift, moving from a very bullish stance two weeks ago to near-neutral positioning, driven by a combination of long position unwinds and the addition of outright short exposure.

Overall, Citi notes that US markets are experiencing relatively small average profits and losses, which reduces pressure on current positions. The Nasdaq 100 shows a balance between long and short positions.

> “This suggests that positioning could amplify volatility near-term through unwinds of shorts on a rally or of longs in a sell-off; each scenario could amplify the initial market moves,” the strategists continued.

In Europe, positioning in the Euro Stoxx 50 index remains close to neutral. Over the past month, bearish sentiment has decreased, but momentum has stalled, and investors have not shifted to net long positions.

According to Citi, investors are likely being more selective in their European exposures, as reflected in sector-specific exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows.