Kalshi Celebrates Ruling on Election Prediction Contracts

After a judge struck down a CFTC order prohibiting Kalshi from offering 2024 election prediction contracts, the marketplace celebrated on its homepage: “We did it! U.S. election markets are coming to Kalshi. Stay tuned for more info, and God bless America!”

However, the CFTC has filed an emergency motion seeking a stay of the judge’s decision for at least two weeks while it prepares an appeal. This filing occurred before Judge Jia Cobb published her opinion detailing the dismissal order issued earlier on Friday.

The CFTC claims that without the court’s reasoning, it cannot make an informed decision regarding an appeal. The agency argues that “time is of the essence” as Kalshi could list regulated election contracts as soon as Tuesday if the contracts are self-certified on Monday and the required one business day is observed before public listing.

Kalshi aims to capitalize on the rise of political prediction marketplaces, notably Polymarket, which prohibits U.S. participation. The CFTC is concerned that if trading begins, it would have limited ability to revoke approval later. The agency asserts that allowing contracts to trade could lead to potential harm to election integrity.

Crypto VC firm Paradigm filed an amicus brief supporting Kalshi, highlighting that such contracts help mitigate risks associated with political outcomes and provide valuable public information for predicting outcomes.

Kalshi was not immediately available for comment from The Block.