Chris Burniske Believes BTC’s Cycle Has Not Peaked Yet

STH MVRV revealed that Bitcoin’s recent local overheated market has cooled to neutral levels.

Bitcoin’s lackluster price performance following President Donald Trump’s inauguration has prompted several market commentators to speculate about a potential cycle peak for BTC. However, Chris Burniske, former crypto executive at Ark Invest and current VC partner at Placeholder, argues that the market is experiencing a “mid-bull pullback” rather than a peak. He remarked:

> “I don’t think this is a sign of cycle top, rather a mid-bull pullback that makes everyone question god. Feels a lot more like April, May, June of 2021 to me, where things fell 50-80% depending on the coin, many said it was over, top-callers gloated, and then we ripped in 2H ’21.”

Burniske referred to the chart showing Bitcoin’s drop from $64k to $30k in early 2021, but noted that BTC later surged to $69k in the latter half of that year. Whether this pattern will repeat remains uncertain.

Bitcoin – Why $96k is a Key Level

A critical valuation indicator, Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV, supports Burniske’s projections. CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler mentioned that the market is likely exiting a local overheated phase as the STH MVRV decreased from 1.35 to neutral levels. He stated:

> “An STH MVRV above 1.30–1.35 typically signals an overheated market, often leading to sell-offs. The decline in the indicator suggests that a portion of STHs have exited their positions. A return to average levels points to the end of a local overheated phase.”

According to Adler, if the STH MVRV drops below the average, it could indicate a local bottom, similar to last September. The direction of this indicator may hinge on announcements from President Trump, as his tariffs plans pose risks to the broader market.

Additionally, the STH realized price (RP), or the average cost of BTC acquired in the past 1-3 months, was at $96K. Historically, the STH RP has acted as support or resistance. A sustained drop below this level could incite panic among the STH cohort, prompting them to sell at a loss, whereas a rebound at this level could sustain an uptrend.

Recently, the STH RP situation has become evident, with BTC trying to maintain above $96k following a sharp decline to $91k on February 3. Moreover, Bitcoin network activity has hit yearly lows, indicating that BTC could be overvalued. If the price is reassessed, BTC may hold at $96k or fall lower, potentially creating new buying opportunities if the retracement reaches low ranges.