Bitcoin Market Analysis

Current Situation

• BTC is 14.4% down over the past month.
• Bitcoin’s long-term holders refuse to sell, but short-term holders feel different as losses rise.

Since hitting $109k, Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to maintain upward momentum. Over this period, volatility has surged, causing BTC prices to fluctuate.

Despite this volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term holders remain committed and their coins are not moving, according to CryptoQuant. The Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI) indicates no significant selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs).

This suggests a structural demand outpacing supply. Smart money isn’t exiting but is strategically positioning for Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Historically, when LTHs hold onto their assets, it reflects strong conviction, often preceding major price expansions. Conversely, if they start selling, it usually coincides with market tops.

The current trend suggests market confidence among LTHs. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STHs) are facing different sentiments. The STH realized price is set around $92K, indicating that this group has been at a loss since March 6th.

Periods of uncertainty tend to pressure weaker hands, often leading them to capitulate. This highlights differing market behaviors between LTHs and STHs.

What BTC Charts Suggest

CryptoQuant’s analysis shows no significant selling pressure from LTHs. According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, sell-side activities have drastically decreased. The Bitcoin Fund Flow Ratio has dropped from 0.12 to 0.05, indicating fewer funds are flowing into exchanges and reducing immediate sell pressure from holders. LTHs may be accumulating or holding, diminishing the likelihood of a large sell-off.

This reduced selling pressure is also evidenced by the declining stock-to-flow ratio. Bitcoin’s SFR has fallen from 43k to 42k over the past week. When supply declines while demand remains constant or increases, prices are likely to rise.

Current market conditions illustrate that while there is some selling activity, the demand side is gradually absorbing it. With LTHs holding firm and STHs capitulating, continued consolidation is suggested.

If the battle between sellers and buyers persists, Bitcoin could trade between $82k and $87k. However, a breakout above this range could push Bitcoin towards $92k, aligning with the STH’s realized price.