Bitcoin Market Analysis

• Bitcoin was trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range.
• Bitcoin bulls defended the crucial weekly MA50 at $75.8K, while the SOPR trend indicated a long consolidation period.

Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) since 2015 shows that the cryptocurrency is currently at its most affordable price period, as reflected in the “10 Years of Bitcoin Seasonality in One Chart.”

Historical data confirms that BTC witnessed the shortest growth range between 0.80 and 1.00 during January and February, aligning perfectly with its current position.

Bitcoin displayed its most significant annual price fluctuations between April and October, which created all substantial market value changes. Starting in April, the growth trend stabilized until October, when it confined its regular upward expansion from 1.40 to 1.60.

Current data suggests Bitcoin may surpass its previous all-time high by June 2025, with projected growth reaching 2.00 or higher, and anticipated price levels ranging between 2.20 and 2.60 from late 2024 to early 2025. This forecast relies on historical trends, where the usual April uptick and October’s momentum often catalyzed significant gains.

Beyond June, Bitcoin’s price could remain below 1.20 unless April’s usual upward trend emerges, the dollar stabilizes, or investor enthusiasm increases.

Why a New ATH for BTC is Possible Before June

This anticipated new ATH for Bitcoin rests on BTC bulls guarding the essential 50 weekly Moving Average (MA50), currently holding at $75.8K. The price hovers around $83.1K, just above the MA50.

Historically, this first support level has served as a rebound zone. For instance, Bitcoin rose from $67K in July 2024 to $83K in December, reflecting sustained positive market movement.

Further analysis of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) trend suggests Bitcoin could maintain extended stability. A decline in SOPR from 1.07 to 1.00 during January 2025 indicates buyers have paused profit-taking, and historically, when SOPR hovers around 1.00—as seen in mid-2023—the market often experiences price increases.

This pattern implies Bitcoin could reach a new ATH by June. Additionally, analyst Avocado reported a negative Funding Rate of -0.02 on Binance as of March 2025, while BTC traded at approximately $83.6K.

In June 2024, a similar negative Funding Rate prompted a price surge from $50K to $70K. A repeat of this Funding Rate movement could drive BTC’s price above $100K.

However, if a prolonged negative Funding Rate aligns with the failure of the MA50 support, BTC’s price might drop to $70K, potentially delaying the new all-time high.