Bernstein says crypto is 'no longer a bipartisan issue' amid Trump's Bitcoin promises and Harris' 'late' olive branch

Crypto Industry’s Influence Ahead of 2024 U.S. Elections

As the crypto industry becomes increasingly prominent in the lead-up to November’s U.S. presidential elections, Bernstein has analyzed how candidates’ positions may affect the market.

Former President Donald Trump spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, making six major promises to the crypto industry if elected:

1. The U.S. will lead the world in Bitcoin and crypto.
2. The U.S. will become a “Bitcoin mining superpower,” promising increased electricity generation capacity for the industry.
3. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, often critical of the industry, will be fired on day one and replaced with a “crypto-friendly” SEC Chair.
4. The U.S. will not create a central bank digital currency (CBDC), ensure a clear right to self-custody, and prevent censorship of crypto transactions.
5. The U.S. will introduce a stablecoin framework to promote a digital dollar as a global standard for cross-border payments.
6. The U.S. will not sell its estimated 213,246 BTC in seized assets — worth nearly $15 billion — and will instead create a “national strategic bitcoin stockpile.”

Analysts pointed out that a national bitcoin strategic reserve could influence how nations perceive bitcoin as a ‘store of value’, similar to gold.

Senator Cynthia Lummis announced her plan to introduce a bill for the U.S. Treasury to purchase 1 million bitcoins over five years, worth about $69 billion.

Vance Spencer of Framework Ventures commented that Trump’s support for a strategic bitcoin reserve could mark a significant turning point for the industry, prompting other nations and institutions to consider bitcoin.

Harris’ Olive Branch

While Vice President Kamala Harris did not speak at the conference, reports suggest she may be looking to mend ties with the crypto industry. Sources indicated her team has reached out to major crypto firms like Coinbase and Ripple.

Democratic voices called for amends regarding past regulatory actions, given that more than 52 million crypto holders in the U.S. could influence close elections. A letter noted 20% of voters in key battleground states consider crypto a major issue in the 2024 elections. The crypto super PAC Fairshake has raised $200 million to support crypto-friendly candidates.

Bernstein analysts observed that the olive branch might be too late and that the industry seeks more substantial action before supporting the Democratic campaign.

Crypto No Longer Bipartisan

Analysts noted that crypto has become a clear non-bipartisan issue, highlighting its trading patterns as Trump’s presidency looks increasingly likely.

They suggested that investors consider greater allocation to bitcoin and related stocks, including miners like Riot Platforms and CleanSpark. Odds for Trump’s victory stand at 60% compared to 38% for Harris in market predictions.

Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies; Bernstein expects compensation for services related to MicroStrategy in the next three months, with particular affiliations acting as market makers for Riot Platforms.