Bitcoin Predictions Amid Elections

Analysts at Bernstein have reiterated their prediction that bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in the $80,000 to $90,000 range if Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. election. This comes as the odds heavily favor the former president following Vice President Kamala Harris's nomination.

Trump has adopted a pro-crypto stance this year, allowing campaign donations in cryptocurrencies and proposing policies to transform the U.S. into a bitcoin mining "powerhouse," appoint a crypto-friendly SEC chair, and establish a national strategic bitcoin reserve.

Conversely, Harris has only recently addressed cryptocurrency in broader terms, stating that while she encourages crypto businesses, consumer protection remains paramount, and that the U.S. should dominate in blockchain technology.

While Bernstein analysts predict bitcoin's long-term growth regardless of the election outcome due to factors like low interest rates and high fiscal deficits, they also suggest significant near-term reactions based on election results. They note that a Trump victory would positively impact bitcoin and crypto markets, potentially pushing bitcoin to exceed its previous peak of $74,000. A Harris win might lead bitcoin to dip into the $40,000 range.

The analysts expect bitcoin to respond to changing election odds, becoming more promising if Trump's chances improve, while remaining stable in a tight race.

Altcoins Outlook

The viewpoint on altcoins differs, with expectations that cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL will likely remain range-bound until after the elections, when regulatory clarity emerges.

Polymarket Analysis

Polymarket, known for its substantial betting volumes related to the U.S. presidential election, has been viewed as having an intrinsic bias toward Trump due to his pro-crypto stance. Bernstein analysts argue that the betting behavior reflects probability rather than bias, underscoring that the market's liquidity helps mitigate such biases.

Over recent weeks, Trump has experienced a surge in betting odds after a rally in Pennsylvania while Harris had maintained a lead previously. Elon Musk's endorsement of Polymarket also influenced perceptions of its accuracy.

Currently, Trump's chances on Polymarket suggest he has a 7% lead over Harris, although polling averages show a close race, indicating that past trends could imply underestimations of Trump's support. Trump leads in major swing states, with shifting margins in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan as well.

Gautam Chhugani maintains various long positions in cryptocurrencies.