Bernstein Analysts Predict Bitcoin Reach of $200,000 by 2025

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predict a price target of $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of Tuesday’s U.S. election outcome.

Republican Donald Trump is viewed as the pro-crypto candidate, while Kamala Harris may continue the Democrats’ strict stance on cryptocurrency adopted in the past four years. However, the party has displayed a notable change in tone over recent months.

Bitcoin’s main catalysts include U.S. fiscal indiscipline, record debt levels, and monetary expansion, which are driving demand for hard assets. The success of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) further supports this trend.

> "The bitcoin genie is out of the bottle, and it is hard to reverse this course. Our bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 remains $200,000 independent of the election outcome."

Polymarket Odds Convergence

Amid convergence in Polymarket odds over the weekend, Chhugani cautioned against short-term volatility, depending on the presidential outcome.

Following Selzer’s Iowa poll, Trump’s leading margin over Harris on Polymarket decreased from 33% on Oct. 30 to about 11%. Presently, Trump commands 57.9% to 42.1% against Harris on this decentralized predictions platform, which has a trading volume of $3.1 billion, making it the largest prediction market. On the regulated Kalshi platform, the gap is 54% to 46% in Trump’s favor, nearly evening out at various points over the weekend. Nonetheless, national polling averages indicate a narrow 1% lead for Harris, aligning with the margin of error.

Bitcoin has recently dropped 7%, falling from around $73,500 on Oct. 29 to $68,596, according to The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page.

Chhugani challenged those claiming Polymarket data is biased towards Trump, noting that it behaves similar to public markets and traders can easily be swayed by incremental poll data.

Harris briefly attained a 2% lead in the swing state of Pennsylvania, but this has now reverted to a 14% advantage for Trump. Trump also leads in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, while Harris has a slight lead in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Victory for either candidate remains unpriced, according to Bernstein analysts, who expect bitcoin to surpass historical highs of almost $74,000 and reach $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump wins before inauguration on Jan. 20. Conversely, a Harris victory could see bitcoin drop to $50,000, initially lowering their previous projection of $30,000 to $40,000 in that scenario.

BRN analyst Valentin Fournier suggested that the recent market correction was largely due to profit-taking and temporary declines in spot bitcoin ETF flows. Despite this, Fournier remains hopeful for a year-end rally possibly leading to a new all-time high for bitcoin.

US Election Impact on Other Crypto Sectors

Some speculate that a Harris win could be beneficial for Ethereum, as the U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs might be the last approved under stricter regulations, thus avoiding competition from Solana or other new investment products. However, Bernstein analysts dismiss this as “zero-sum thinking,” asserting that a constructive Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would benefit all crypto assets beyond bitcoin.

The viability of blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana depends on favorable regulations for stablecoins, asset tokenization, and crypto classification. Bipartisan support and a crypto-friendly SEC are crucial, with Trump advocating for pro-crypto policies, while Harris shows support for ownership but lacks specific plans, according to Chhugani.

Bitcoin mining will also be a focal point due to its potential for domestic production and energy sourcing for AI compute. Regardless of the election result, mining is anticipated to prosper. Chhugani noted that supportive mining policies could enhance investor interest beyond the energy/AI narrative.

Gautam Chhugani holds long positions in several cryptocurrencies. Certain Bernstein affiliates serve as market makers or liquidity providers in the debt securities of bitcoin miner Riot Platforms.