Economic Activity in Argentina

By Hernan Nessi

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Economic activity in Argentina likely fell again in November compared to the same month a year earlier, but less than the 0.7% contraction in October, according to a Reuters poll of market analysts.

The median forecast from 13 analysts indicates a 0.6% year-on-year contraction in November, marking the sixth consecutive decline, if confirmed by officials.

Poll estimates ranged from a 3.2% contraction to a 1.6% growth.

The slight improvement was driven by the key agricultural sector, while construction continued to struggle. Despite the anticipated contraction, analysts maintain optimism for growth in December.

“Activity comes with positive prospects for the closing of a difficult year, which saw a sharp decline and a rapid rebound, although uneven among the sectors,” said consulting firm Orlando Ferreres & Asociados.

In 2025, they hope the most lethargic sectors will improve and contribute to more uniform economic growth.

Argentina, South America’s second-largest economy, has been in a prolonged slump, marked by one of the world’s highest inflation rates, but recently showed signs of emerging from recession.

Earlier this month, analysts surveyed by the country’s central bank predicted economic growth of around 1% through the first half of 2025, accelerating to an annualized rate of 4.5% by year-end.

Argentina’s INDEC statistics agency is scheduled to release November’s economic activity data on Thursday afternoon (1900 GMT).