JPMorgan's Outlook on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Analysts at JPMorgan anticipate strong fourth-quarter earnings from Apple but warn of weaker guidance for the upcoming holiday quarter. This reflects a balance of better-than-expected September quarter results and the potential for a shortfall in first-quarter fiscal 2025 guidance.

Key Points

• iPhone 16 shipments benefited from a smooth supply ramp during the September quarter, filling inventory channels before the holiday season.
• Initial sell-through for the iPhone 16 series started slowly compared to the iPhone 15, with demand improving recently, but still modestly below last year.
• JPMorgan forecasts Apple's iPhone revenues for F1Q25 will track below consensus but expects year-over-year revenue growth due to "Price/Mix" improvements.
• The upcoming "Apple Intelligence" feature is expected to drive consumer demand in 2025.
• They maintain a volume forecast of 245 million iPhone units in 2025E, predicting revenue growth above consensus in Q2 and Q3 of 2025.

Adjusted Estimates

JPMorgan has raised its forecast for F4Q24 revenue while lowering projections for F1Q25. Analysts highlighted that Apple's gross margins are expected to outperform consensus expectations due to a favorable product mix early in the upgrade cycle.

Price Target and Rating

The investment bank retains its December 2025 price target of $265 with an Overweight rating on Apple, emphasizing the company's potential for sustained growth as it introduces new technologies.