Forward Guidance Newsletter Segment

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As Blockworks kicks off the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Fed officials will be gathering for their March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington.

The central bank is overwhelmingly expected to hold interest rates steady, continuing a pause to its rate-cutting schedule. After next week, the Fed won’t have another rate-setting meeting until May; odds of a cut then are only around 30%, according to CME data.

Betting on a “Trump put” at this point is, dare I say, wishful thinking. President Trump announced additional tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the administration will proceed with the duties even if it means pushing the economy into a recession.

A “Fed put” may not be entirely off the table, but it’s not coming anytime soon. Jerome Powell has made it clear that substantial weakening in the labor market is required for central bankers to reconsider the current pause.

HSBC analysts noted this week that the Fed won’t budge until the data changes. Worse data indicates increased recessionary fears and lower asset prices. They remarked that we are caught between a rock and a hard place.

It’s currently a waiting game. The labor market looks acceptable, but tariffs may impact hiring and further anticipated layoffs in DOGE have not yet been reflected in the data.

Instead of doom-scrolling next week, we recommend attending DAS, where you can spiral and speculate in real life.