U.S. RSV Vaccine Sales Drop

By Michael Erman
(Reuters) – U.S. sales of RSV vaccines from GSK and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) have decreased significantly after regulators narrowed the targeted age group and deemed it a once-in-a-lifetime shot, excluding millions who received one last year.

Decrease in Demand

Independent pharmacists report that demand for respiratory syncytial virus shots during the autumn vaccination season has fallen by as much as two-thirds compared to last year. Reports from healthcare data company IQVIA support these figures.

Importance for Pfizer and GSK

Both companies depend on these shots to establish new franchises ahead of the expected generic competition for their top-selling drugs later this decade. Pfizer faces challenges, including activist investors and declining COVID product demand, resulting in a stock price drop of around 50% from pandemic highs. This situation compelled the company to announce two cost-cutting plans exceeding $5.5 billion.

CEO Albert Bourla expressed disappointment with the 2023 launch of RSV shot Abrysvo, but Pfizer remains optimistic about the vaccine for the remainder of the year.

Regulatory Changes Impacting Demand

Erin Fox, a professor at the University of Utah, attributed the reduced demand to the government’s decision in June to narrow the eligibility for the vaccine. Fox stated, "I think we're just going to see fewer patients…the pent-up demand is going to lead to a lower number of patients getting vaccinated."
Analyst Peter Welford from Jefferies noted signs that GSK's Arexvy sales may fall short of Wall Street expectations for the third quarter.

The RSV season traditionally starts in October.
A GSK representative reported that 9 million Americans, or two-thirds of the market, have received Arexvy, indicating growth potential in both U.S. and global markets. Last year, approximately 24% of adults over 60 were vaccinated, with 30% of adults 70 or older receiving the shot.

GSK forecasts Arexvy to generate peak annual sales of 3 billion pounds ($3.92 billion).

Current Vaccine Activity

In September of last year, about 440,000 individuals received RSV shots from GSK and Pfizer; this year, that average dropped to around 157,000. CVS Health and Walgreens did not comment on their sales figures.

Local Pharmacy Perspectives

David Kohll from Kohll's Pharmacy noted a 65% decrease in vaccine bookings compared to the previous year. Similarly, Steve Moore from Condo Pharmacy expressed that the majority of excited vaccine recipients were already vaccinated last year. He commented on the reduced turnout for vaccination events, stating, "Instead of like 80 people, I've got six."

The CDC recommends the shots for adults 75 and older, and those 60-74 at high risk of severe RSV due to medical conditions. Notably, there’s been a reduction in the eligible age from last year.

GSK's 2023 Arexvy sales reached 1.2 billion pounds ($1.57 billion), while Pfizer's Abrysvo had $890 million. Predictions suggest a slight dip in GSK’s sales this year, while Pfizer’s sales could increase by nearly 40%.

Moderna's (NASDAQ:MRNA) mResvia was approved in May, but its market entry is expected to lag due to late approval.

Conclusion

In evaluating the impact of RSV vaccines, BMO analyst Evan Seigerman remarked, "It's not a flu shot…these shots that you don't get over and over again are not an annuity."