Happy Wednesday!

In today's Daily, HBO's documentary "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" suggests Peter Todd is Satoshi Nakamoto, VanEck enters the crypto VC space, and the U.S. government says Bitfinex could be the sole victim in its 2016 hack, among other updates.

HBO documentary suggests Peter Todd is Satoshi Nakamoto

Tuesday night's HBO documentary "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" suggested early Bitcoin developer Peter Todd is its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

• Todd denied the claim immediately after the film aired, posting "I'm not Satoshi" on X.
• The nearly two-hour documentary, billed as a "globe-trotting investigation" aiming to "solve one of the internet's greatest mysteries," interviewed several people involved in Bitcoin and examined various clues before finally pointing to Todd.
• Filmmaker Cullen Hoback's case focused on a 2010 BitcoinTalk forum reply where Todd claimed he accidentally finished Satoshi's post. Both accounts went silent shortly after, and Todd later implemented the replace-by-fee feature discussed in the thread.
• Among the supporting evidence cited was Todd using the pseudonym "John Dillon" to advocate for replace-by-fee, the British/Canadian spellings common to both Satoshi and Todd, and a weekend-heavy posting schedule aligning with Todd's student life.
• Hoback also mentioned Todd's discussion about "sacrificing" bitcoins, suggesting this referred to destroying Satoshi's estimated coins of 1.1 million BTC — about $68 billion now.
• Another former Bitcoin developer, Gregory Maxwell, criticized the documentary's argument linking Todd to Satoshi, highlighting flaws in the logic and questioning the thoroughness of Hoback's research.
• Todd agreed with Maxwell, accusing Hoback of prioritizing profit over accuracy.
• The documentary's conclusion prompted significant debate and skepticism, with many in the community denouncing and debunking its claims, championing the idea that Bitcoin's creator should remain anonymous.

VanEck enters crypto VC space, seeks $30 million for first fund

Global asset manager VanEck, managing over $118 billion in assets, has launched VanEck Ventures, led by two former Circle Ventures leaders, Wyatt Lonergan and Juan Lopez.

• The firm is raising $30 million for its first fund aimed at investing in early-stage startups within fintech, crypto, and AI.
• This fund plans to make 25 to 35 investments, focusing on stablecoin and tokenization platforms, with investment sizes ranging from $500,000 to $1 million.
• VanEck has already made four investments through this new fund and continues to secure capital, expecting the fund to close later this quarter.
• VanEck has been a pioneer in the crypto field, being one of the first to apply for a spot bitcoin ETF in 2018 and a spot ether ETF in 2021.

US government says Bitfinex could be the sole victim of 2016 hack

According to a recent court filing, the U.S. government has stated that Bitfinex may be the only victim of the 2016 hack involving Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan, also known as "Razzlekhan."

• Following the hack, parent company iFinex revealed customers could sell Bitfinex-issued tokens called BFX on the market or exchange them for cash or iFinex stock.
• The government requested the court permit Bitfinex account holders to submit claims due to caution.
• Lichtenstein and Morgan pleaded guilty to money laundering conspiracy related to the 119,754 BTC hack (valued at $72 million in 2016), with sentencing scheduled for next month.

Former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison agrees to hand over bulk of her remaining assets

Caroline Ellison, the ex-CEO of FTX-connected Alameda Research, has consented to relinquish "substantially all" her remaining assets to the debtors in a lawsuit from the FTX estate, excluding those forfeited to the government or used for legal costs.

• The settlement includes extensive cooperation with ongoing investigations by the estate.
• FTX filed for bankruptcy in late 2022, with debtors pursuing recovery from Sam Bankman-Fried, Ellison, and other former executives.
• The lawsuit aims to recover large sums, including $22.5 million in bonuses and $6.3 million in payments to Ellison from 2021 and 2022.
• Upon settlement, Ellison will retain only certain physical personal belongings, as stated by FTX.

Is a bitcoin 'melt-up' on the cards post-US election?

Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, indicated that a non-Democratic sweep in U.S. elections, additional Fed rate cuts, and no significant crypto hacks or lawsuits could catalyze a bitcoin "melt-up" to exceed $80,000 this quarter.

• Analysts at Bernstein suggested bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 if pro-crypto Donald Trump wins, while victory for Kamala Harris may send bitcoin back to around $40,000 with regulatory uncertainty.
• Currently, Trump leads Harris by over 7% on Polymarket, while national polls show a close race within the 3% margin of error favoring Harris.

In the next 24 hours

• The latest U.S. CPI inflation data will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday, with estimates of MoM at 0.1% and Core at 0.2%, and YoY at 2.3% with Core at 3.2%. U.S. jobless claims figures will be released simultaneously.
• U.S. FOMC member John Williams will speak at 11 a.m.
• Bitcoin Amsterdam concludes in the Netherlands, with Crypto Fest, Zebu Live, and the World Blockchain Summit commencing.

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