ANALYST REPORTS CRYPTO MOVERS ECONOMIC INDICATORS EQUITY MOVERS RATE DECISIONS

Waning China stock rally could drive investment back into crypto, QCP Capital claims

theblock.co 08/10/2024 - 12:03 PM

Stocks Tied to Chinese Markets Decline

Stocks associated with Chinese markets experienced a significant fall on Tuesday after Beijing opted not to introduce new stimulus measures to support the economy.

QCP Capital analysts perceive this downturn as a potential opportunity for reallocating capital into the cryptocurrency market. They noted, "As the Chinese rally wanes, we anticipate capital reallocation back into crypto, reflecting the industry’s growing maturity as an alternative risk-on asset."

During the Asian trading session, Chinese companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, such as Alibaba Group and JD.com, saw major declines of roughly 8% and 12%, respectively. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific equity index faced its largest drop in a month, while Hong Kong equities recorded their steepest single-day loss since 2008. Additionally, the CBOE Volatility Index increased by 15% to 22 points, indicating heightened market uncertainty.

Despite the rising VIX, analysts pointed out that the crypto derivatives market currently exhibits lower expectations for future bitcoin price fluctuations compared to recent actual volatility. "In the derivatives market, crypto volatility remained stable, with front-end implied volatility trading at 43%, a 3-vol discount to the seven-day historical realized volatility," they stated.

China’s Monetary Easing and Its Global Market Impact

Investors were hoping that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state economic planning body, would unveil additional stimulus measures during a briefing on Tuesday. However, NDRC chair Zheng Shanjie stated there would be no new proposals and expressed "full confidence" that the nation would meet its official full-year growth target of approximately 5%.

The current market decline follows nearly two weeks of stock gains related to China after the government announced a series of economic stimulus measures aimed at decreasing borrowing costs and revitalizing economic activity in late September. These measures included a 0.5 percentage point cut in interest rates on existing mortgages and a reduction in reserve requirements for banks to encourage lending.

The People’s Bank of China Governor, Pan Gongsheng, emphasized that these initiatives seek to stimulate domestic demand and financial markets, thereby boosting investor confidence. Nevertheless, growth in the world’s second-largest economy continues to decline, exacerbated by a struggling property market and falling prices.

In recent hours, gold saw a 0.2% increase to $2,648.7 per ounce, while bitcoin traded steadily at around $62,400, according to The Block's bitcoin price data.




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