Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin Outlook

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, stated that while Middle Eastern risks may depress bitcoin prices, investors should view this as a buying opportunity due to Donald Trump’s rising presidential chances.

“Risk concerns in the Middle East could push bitcoin below $60,000 before the weekend. However, with the $80,000 call options and the implications of Trump’s probabilities, this dip is worth buying into,” Kendrick mentioned in a note.

Kendrick pointed out that this week, the odds in the U.S. presidential race have shifted slightly between Trump and Kamala Harris. Data from Polymarket indicates that Trump’s chances have risen by 1%, while Harris’s have decreased by the same percentage. Currently, Harris has a 49% chance of winning the November election, compared to Trump’s 50%.

“This creates an interesting circularity for bitcoin. Geopolitical concerns may lower prices, yet these very concerns could increase Trump’s odds, potentially enhancing bitcoin’s post-election outlook,” Kendrick explained.

A Trump victory is seen as beneficial for cryptocurrencies, mainly due to his involvement with Bitcoin in 2024 and initiatives like the World Liberty decentralized finance (DeFi) project. Analysts expect his administration to accelerate pro-crypto policies.

Conversely, many analysts view a Harris victory as bearish for bitcoin, likely stalling expected regulatory developments. Kendrick noted, “A Harris win might cause an initial price drop, but we expect buyers to emerge as the market recognizes forthcoming regulatory progress.”

Bitcoin Options Market Outlook

Kendrick also highlighted growth in bitcoin call option positions, indicating medium-term optimism in the market. Increased demand for call options suggests that many traders anticipate upward price movements, bolstering a positive outlook for bitcoin.

“The open interest for call options set to expire on December 27 at an $80,000 strike price on Derebit surged by 1,300 bitcoin in the past two days,” he noted.

Moreover, Kendrick highlighted that bitcoin does not act as a safe haven during geopolitical tensions. “Gold is a hedge against geopolitical issues, while bitcoin serves as a safeguard against traditional finance problems like bank collapses or de-dollarization/U.S. Treasury sustainability issues,” he explained.

Currently, bitcoin’s price has dropped by approximately 0.8% over the past 24 hours, standing at around $60,638 as of 5:53 a.m. ET according to The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page.