Australia Revises Down Resource and Energy Export Earnings Forecasts

By Lewis Jackson

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia has revised its forecasts for resource and energy export earnings downward due to lower prices across various commodities and a stronger currency, which continue to impact a vital source of government revenue.

The country now predicts that commodity export earnings will decrease by about 10% to A$372 billion ($256 billion) for the year ending June 30, 2025, down from the previous forecast of A$380 billion made in June. Last year’s revenues reached A$415 billion.

This decline is expected to persist into 2026, albeit at a slower pace, with earnings projected to fall to A$354 billion.

According to the report, commodity prices have decreased due to slower economic growth in developed countries, resulting from higher interest rates and reduced demand from China, a key consumer of steel and other commodities.

Australia’s largest export, iron ore, has been significantly affected by the downturn in the Chinese property sector, with prices declining by approximately one-third this year. The forecast for iron ore export revenue is expected to decline to A$99 billion in the year ending June 30, 2026, down from A$138 billion last year.

Prices have also dropped for many other resources covered in the report, including metals essential for the renewable energy transition, such as nickel and lithium. A surge in supply from Indonesia has led to the closure of some Australian nickel mines.

($1 = 1.4550 Australian dollars)