By Elena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW (Reuters) – The Russian central bank will keep its benchmark rate on hold at 21% at a board meeting on April 25, as predicted by all 25 analysts in a Reuters poll. Global economic turbulence raises concerns about the Russian economy’s state.

The government maintained its growth estimate for 2025 at 2.5% in new forecasts released on Monday. They do not foresee a significant risk of a global recession but have lowered their estimate for oil prices, Russia’s main export, by 17%.

Last October, the central bank raised its key rate to its highest level since the early 2000s while combating inflation. The rouble surged by 40% against the dollar this year, making imported goods cheaper.

Despite this, lower oil prices due to decreasing global demand and recession risks from U.S. trade tariffs could negate the rouble’s gains by mid-year. Analysts from Aigenis investment firm noted that an impending recession could prompt the regulator to ease monetary policy, though current rhetoric suggests economic concerns are minimal.

During the meeting, the central bank will review forecasts, currently estimating 1% to 2% growth in 2025. Analysts will monitor comments regarding trade wars and global recession risks. Some suggest the bank may adjust oil price forecasts to align better with government estimates.

Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank governor, described trade wars as a “tectonic shift” and a significant risk, stating it’s early to assess their impact on the global economy. Solid brokerage analysts indicated that pro-inflationary factors and imported inflation risks are deterring the central bank from rapidly lowering interest rates.