Trade War Update

There’s a 70% chance that the trade war between Canada and the U.S. will be over by May, according to Polymarket odds. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated on Fox Business that U.S. President Donald Trump is open to negotiations.

On Tuesday morning, Canada and Mexico faced 25% tariffs on all products entering the U.S., as President Trump cited issues like fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration as national security threats.

Later that day, Lutnick indicated a potential avenue for negotiation, leading to a 20% rise in odds on Polymarket within hours. “I think [Trump is] going to work something out with them,” Lutnick stated. “It’s not going to be a pause… I think he’s going to figure out: you do more, and I’ll meet you in the middle someway and we’re going to probably announce that tomorrow.”

Lutnick’s comments appeared to soothe crypto markets on ‘Turnaround Tuesday’, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising 1.5% to trade above $87,000, according to CoinDesk Indices data. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which measures the performance of the largest digital assets, is up 2% following the news.