Bitcoin Market Update (March 2025)

Bitcoin enters the last full business week of March 2025, with traders and analysts closely watching how economic data releases like the US Personal Consumption Expenditures and policy developments will affect the crypto market. The largest crypto by market cap has surged past $87,000, but market participants are divided on its next move.

According to Coingecko, in the trading hours leading up to Monday’s US market opening, Bitcoin was changing hands at $87,500, an uptick of 3.4% in the last 24 hours and a weekly gain of 5.3%.

> BITCOIN – No need for any bias. Here’s a reminder of my simple analysis and outlook. pic.twitter.com/APZY3f7eX7
> — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) March 24, 2025

Some analysts see a potential downward price correction below $80,000, while others like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predict Bitcoin could surge to $110,000.

> “My analysis is flashing a warning, correction is still underway, and a dip could be coming,” posted crypto trading expert IamCryptoWolf on X.

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Losses

Bitcoin continues to trade within a consolidating wedge structure, with a harmonic pattern emerging on the four-hour charts. A potential third drive in the 3-Drive harmonic pattern is expected to complete near the 100% Fibonacci extension, placing Bitcoin’s price target in the $89,000–$91,000 range.

Bitcoin chart showing a consolidating wedge formation. Source: TradingView

Traders selling around this level are considered to be in a strong position. The setup would be invalidated if Bitcoin rose above the $95,000–$96,000 zone.

Market volatility is pushing short-term Bitcoin holders to sell. Data from Glassnode reveals unrealized losses are mounting, with many short-term holder coins now under water.

> “#BTC’s Short-Term Holders are under increasing pressure. Unrealized losses have surged, pushing many STH coins underwater, nearing the +2σ threshold. Still, losses remain within historical bull market bounds and are less severe than the May 2021 sell-off.”
> — glassnode (@glassnode) March 21, 2025

The group’s rolling 30-day realized loss has reached $7 billion, marking the largest sustained loss event of this cycle, yet still lower than the over $19 billion in losses during previous capitulation events in 2021–2022.

BitMEX Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin Clocking New Highs

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin is more likely to hit $110,000 before retesting $76,500. He attributed this to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies, emphasizing the shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE).

> “The price is more likely to hit $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it’s yachtzee time, and we ain’t looking back until $250k,” he remarked.

PCE Data Could Sway Market Sentiment

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is set for release on March 28. Analysts expect a similar outcome for February’s data as last month, which came in below expectations.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows an 11.6% change in expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, with investors waiting for more signs before making definitive moves.

Trump Tariffs Could Lead to Inflation

The US government’s reciprocal tariff arrangement, signed off by President Trump, will take effect on April 2. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated tariffs are contributing to rising inflation expectations.

> “I think we were getting closer and closer to price stability. I wouldn’t say we were at that. I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed,” he stated.

The new tariffs could dampen risk-on sentiment in financial markets, including Bitcoin. Stocks are showing signs of recovery after a four-week losing streak, but volatility remains a concern.

On-Chain Data Signals Market Confidence

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows total ERC-20 stablecoin reserves on exchanges hit a record high of $31.8 billion on March 21, indicating potential buying pressure ahead.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) has been breaking out across short and long timeframes, signaling increased buying strength. Market observers are noting bullish divergences on Bitcoin’s weekly RSI, indicating a possible reversal in the recent downtrend.

Last week, trader and analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that the daily RSI is retesting a critical downtrend line from November 2024, which could lead to higher price levels.

> “Slowly, people are starting to believe,” Rekt Capital noted.
The daily RSI is currently above its midpoint at 52, with traders watching for other signs of bullish momentum building in the market.