Bitcoin Price Movement Analysis

Although Bitcoin (BTC) initially saw sideways price action during the weekend, it made a notable move to the upside late on Sunday.

While various narratives abound online, a closer look at the actions of long-term Bitcoin holders can provide additional insight into market dynamics.

Recent Price Movement

As of March 24, BTC was priced at $87,420, increasing by 3.67% over the past 24 hours, decreasing year-to-date (YTD) losses to 6.38%.

The rally’s primary driver was a Wall Street Journal report suggesting the White House would narrow upcoming tariffs effective April 2, focusing on reciprocal levies directed at 15 countries with which the U.S. has the largest trade deficit. If executed, this could alleviate financial market uncertainty.

However, the President’s tariff policies have already reduced the number of Bitcoin millionaires by nearly 20%. On-chain analysis indicates that reduced Bitcoin value is the primary reason for this, not widespread liquidations.

Long-term Bitcoin Holders

The Bitcoin Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI), created by CryptoQuant contributor onchained in late 2024, tracks the inactive supply of Bitcoin dormant for one to seven years. It provides additional insight into the sentiment of long-term BTC holders.

Despite suggestions that long-term holders are capitulating, most recent supply shifts correlate with coins held for more than a year but less than two years. Furthermore, the movement of supplies dormant for three years or more has decreased significantly since January, with very minimal movement from holders of over five years.

These metrics imply that the majority of long-term Bitcoin holders maintain a bullish outlook on the leading cryptocurrency.

Although recent geopolitical and macroeconomic events have limited buying pressure, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin seems intact, particularly among buy-and-hold investors.

Additionally, Wall Street has seen a record sell-off of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but attributing this solely to changes in long-term outlooks may be premature, as it likely involves portfolio rebalancing.

Currently, BTC is supported by its 1-week moving average (1W MA50), and according to chart expert TradingShot, a breakout above a channel structure could spark a rally to $150,000 or even $200,000, following trends of previous market cycles.

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