Bitcoin’s Critical Juncture

Bitcoin (BTC), the first and largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is nearing a key moment that could determine the future for bullish traders. In a recent tweet, crypto analyst Ali emphasized the importance of monitoring the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) and the 180-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). He noted that a “golden cross” pattern could signify the continuation of an ongoing Bitcoin bull run.

> “Watch for the MVRV and 180-day SMA to flash a golden cross to signal the continuation of the Bitcoin (BTC) bull run!”
> — Ali (@ali_charts) March 21, 2025

A golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, suggesting potential sustained upward momentum.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 1.74% in the last 24 hours to $83,359 as Thursday’s gains were met with profit-taking in early Friday trading. Analysts highlight the $80,000 level as critical support that Bitcoin must maintain. Currently holding above this support, the formation of a golden cross between the MVRV and the 180-day SMA could further bolster bullish sentiment.

Cautious Sentiment Among Traders

Despite optimistic technical indicators, broader market conditions and macroeconomic factors may influence Bitcoin’s price direction in the short term. The derivatives market, however, shows a more cautious stance among traders.

According to Glassnode, futures open interest decreased from $57 billion to $37 billion, marking a 35% decline since Bitcoin’s all-time high. This drop illustrates reduced speculation and hedging, reflecting a broader risk-off behavior in the market.

Additionally, the Bitcoin options market indicates a rising demand for downside protection. The Volatility Smile reveals that put options are trading at a higher premium than call options, which suggests that investors are positioning to guard against further declines. The Options 25 Delta Skew corroborates this trend, with short-term puts becoming increasingly expensive compared to equivalent calls, reflecting sustained demand for hedging. This risk-off sentiment indicates heightened uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price movements, further emphasized by the increasing costs of downside protection in BTC options.