Ethereum’s price shows no signs of recovery, with sideways movement over the past week. A rebound is possible if it holds above recent lows.
Technical Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
The Daily Chart
ETH’s daily chart remains bearish, struggling to maintain above the $1,900 support area after a downtrend. A breakdown could lead to further declines, potentially targeting the $1,600 support zone. The 200-day moving average is around $2,900, indicating a strong bearish sentiment.
The RSI is oversold, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. A decisive break above $2,000 with strong volume could shift momentum toward $2,200; however, failure to do so might confirm continued weakness.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart indicates a breakout from a descending wedge pattern, hinting at a trend reversal. Price action remains around the $1,900 resistance zone, with multiple rejections indicating weak bullish momentum. The RSI shows recovery but is still below overbought levels.
If ETH can close above this resistance, it may rally to $2,100-$2,200. Conversely, failing to hold $1,900 could lead to a retest of the $1,800 support level. Volume confirmation is key to determining if this breakout will hold.
Onchain Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
Exchange Reserve
Ethereum’s exchange reserve is declining, currently near 18.8 million, indicating a long-term accumulation trend as fewer tokens are available for selling. This suggests investors may be moving ETH to self-custody or staking, reducing selling pressure.
Despite the $1,900 drop, there’s no significant spike in reserves, implying that panic selling may not be fully realized, supporting confidence among long-term holders. ETH is at a critical resistance zone near $1,900-$2,000. A supply squeeze could lead to recovery if buyers step in.
However, if it fails to regain key levels and sentiment worsens, ETH could flow back to exchanges, increasing selling pressure. Monitoring reserve trends and price action is essential to determine whether the downtrend is nearing exhaustion or if further declines are likely.
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