U.S. Economy Remains Strong, Says Treasury Secretary

Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick insists the U.S. economy is on solid footing despite concerns from Wall Street that a recession is imminent.

> “Absolutely not,” he said on a Sunday edition of Meet the Press when asked if Americans should prepare for a downturn.

“There’s going to be no recession in America,” he continued. “It’s like the same people who thought Donald Trump wasn’t a winner a year ago. Donald Trump is a winner. He’s going to win for the American people.”

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, usually caused by imbalances from various factors.

> “The President is on it and he is powerful on it, and he is not going to take his foot off the gas.” Lutnick emphasized that tariffs are part of a drug war, urging Canada, Mexico, and China to act against fentanyl production and trafficking.

This contrast with the President’s earlier remarks, wherein he did not rule out a recession as part of a transition.

Lutnick argued that Trump’s tariff strategy will force other countries to lower their trade barriers, unleashing American growth and resulting in $1.3 trillion in new investments.

> “We’re going to unleash America out to the world,” he said, countering warnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs about a potential tariff-induced recession. “You are going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America.”

While acknowledging that tariffs could increase foreign goods’ prices, Lutnick views them as a means of reducing the deficit and lowering borrowing costs:

> “When you balance the budget… you drive interest rates down 150 basis points. Mortgages come smashing down. The cost of your home will come smashing down.”

In contrast, crypto traders are less optimistic. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 7% to $80,000, approaching its 2025 low, while other cryptocurrencies also declined significantly.

On Polymarket, bettors are increasingly anticipating a slowdown, with contracts predicting a 41% chance of a recession in 2025, an increase of 16% in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the latest U.S. jobs report indicated 151,000 jobs added in February, in line with expectations, despite a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% and downward revisions for January’s job gains.

Though the labor market’s resilience has moderated recession concerns, signs of slowing growth have emerged, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasting a negative 2.8% Q1 growth rate. One contract suggests only a 3% chance of a recession before May, with the first quarter ending on March 31.