SOL Price Analysis

• SOL fell nearly 47% from its January 19 high, reaching about $157.25 by February 24.
• Investor confidence is impacted by its link to the Lazarus Group, a pending $1.79B token unlock, and reduced futures market activity.
• A head-and-shoulders pattern and break below $177 support hint at a potential drop to around $110, though a rebound to $215 is possible if support holds.

Solana Price Performance

Solana’s price is losing gains following Donald Trump’s reelection. On February 24, SOL dropped 7.35% to around $157.25, its lowest since November 6. This is part of a bigger drop that began on January 19, when SOL hit an all-time high of $295.31 and has since dropped nearly 47%.

Several factors are contributing to the price decline for SOL. One of them is the association of Solana with the North Korean-backed Lazarus Group, known for its numerous hacks and memecoin scams. This association has hurt investor confidence.

Another concern is the upcoming token unlocking. On March 1, 11.16 million SOL tokens worth approximately $1.79 billion will be unlocked, mostly from the FTX estate. Investors worry that once released, these tokens will add to selling pressure and drive the price down.

Technical Analysis

Market signals are also negative. Open interest in the futures market for SOL has declined from $8.57 billion on January 17 to $5.11 billion as of February 24, indicating that fewer investors are speculating on SOL appreciating in value. Weekly funding rates have turned negative, showing that long-position holders are being compensated by short-position holders, reflecting poor market sentiment.

The SOL technical chart indicates a head-and-shoulders pattern, a typical bearish signal. SOL broke below the support level of about $177 near the neckline. If this trend continues, the target price could be around $110, more than 30% lower than current levels.

Conversely, if SOL can maintain support, there is potential for a bounce back up to $215. Compounding this, interest in Solana-based memecoins has waned; these memecoins, including Official Trump, Bonk, and Dogwifhat, account for much of the network usage. Decreasing activity leads to reduced demand for SOL, which is necessary for transaction fees.

Overall, negative sentiment surrounding hacks, impending token unlocks, low futures activity, and bearish technical patterns are significantly weighing down SOL’s price. Traders are cautious as the market awaits stronger signals for either further declines or a possible bounce.