Polymarket Cancels DOGE Bet

Polymarket announced it will no longer accept bets on whether Elon Musk’s Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will cut $3 billion worth of DEI contracts by the end of February, citing unreliable data from its tracker.

The market asked, “Will DOGE cut $3B of DEI contracts before March?” with a volume of $16,352, based on information from the recently launched DOGE-tracker.

However, Polymarket canceled the market due to changes in the underlying data source (doge-tracker.com), stating, “This market will resolve to 50-50. All losses will be refunded.”

Issues with DOGE-Tracker

DOGE’s data has proven unreliable for tracking government savings as the claimed total savings of $55 billion has been labeled exaggerated and even “fraudulent.”

Twitter user @electricfutures exposed several inaccuracies, estimating total savings are around $32.5 billion, a significant overestimate. For example, DOGE misreported an $8 million contract as $8 billion and erroneously triple-counted one contract, inflating savings figures.

Despite corrections, @electricfutures argued, DOGE did not address the foundational issues in their calculations or methodology, leading to claims that the reported $55 billion figure is fraudulent.

DOGE has pushed back against these accusations, asserting they used the correct $8 million figure from the beginning and rectified an agency mistake made in 2022.

DEI Policies Under Scrutiny

The agency has faced increasing scrutiny as DEI contracts and policies are dismantled under the new administration. DOGE recently threatened to withdraw federal funding from the US Department of Education unless DEI policies were abandoned, already cutting $1 billion from DoE contracts affecting the agency’s research capabilities.

US Senator Patty Murray criticized Musk’s actions, stating he is “bulldozing the research arm of the Department of Education” and undermining vital research needed for public schools.