Polymarket Experiences Post-Election Slowdown

Polymarket, the blockchain-powered prediction platform, witnessed its busiest month in November due to the U.S. Presidential Election. However, December’s trading activity has significantly decreased, with volumes dropping below both November and October’s figures. Open interest has sharply declined from nearly $500 million to just $117 million.

Overview of Activity

Polymarket’s users accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris, but following the election, trading volumes have trended downward. As per Dune Analytics, December’s trading volume stands at $1.7 billion, considerably lower than November’s $2.57 billion and October’s $2.28 billion. Nonetheless, this December’s figure exceeds September’s $503 million.

Active Traders and Open Interest

Despite this decline in trading volume, the number of active traders increased this month, reaching 309,228, up from 293,705 in November. However, open interest peaked at $474 million on November 5, 2024, but has since plummeted to $117 million.

Ongoing Wagers

Polymarket remains a hub for politically charged wagers, focusing on topics such as “Biden’s pardons,” “Trump appointees’ confirmations,” and “the next House speaker.” Additionally, there are markets for predicting bitcoin’s price and potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate adjustments. As activity declines post-election, it will be interesting to observe how Polymarket’s metrics develop leading into 2025.