Novo Nordisk's CagriSema Trial Results

Investing.com — Novo Nordisk (CSE:NOVOb) shares jumped over 9% on Monday, despite disappointing results for its experimental obesity treatment, CagriSema.

This followed data release from the REDEFINE-1 phase 3 trial on Friday, evaluating CagriSema—a combination of cagrilintide, an amylin agonist, and semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist—on its efficacy in promoting weight loss.

Analysts at Bernstein reported a weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, with a placebo-adjusted result of 20.3%.

While this outcome was an improvement over individual drug components, it fell short of expectations, including the company’s own projections of 25% weight loss, disappointing investors eager for a top obesity treatment contender.

Despite CagriSema outperforming cagrilintide and semaglutide, which had individual weight reductions of 11.8% and 16.1%, the 22.7% result was deemed underwhelming.

The trial also noted practical challenges: many participants remained on lower doses; only 57% escalated to the high-dose variant by trial’s end.

Novo Nordisk indicated that adverse events linked to CagriSema were mild to moderate gastrointestinal issues, which did not significantly dampen the disappointment surrounding the results.

Jefferies analysts compared CagriSema’s 20.4% weight loss at 68 weeks to Lilly’s Tirzepatide (15mg) at 72 weeks with a 20.9% loss.

CagriSema's results, although similar, failed to meet expectations, particularly concerning dosing flexibility in REDEFINE-1 that might have led to less efficacy.

Analysts speculated about the low percentage of patients achieving maximum doses compared to Tirzepatide, where 84.9% reached the highest dose in the SURMOUNT-1 trial.

Jefferies noted that Novo plans another 2025 trial with less flexible dosing but cautioned tolerability issues might persist, casting doubt on CagriSema’s future.

This disappointed performance allows Lilly to retain its competitive edge, with Tirzepatide continuing to dominate the obesity market.

Lilly's next-generation therapies such as Orforglipron and Retatrutide position it well for continued leadership in obesity treatment, potentially offering better results than existing therapies.

Jefferies highlighted Orforglipron’s promise as both a first-in-class and best-in-class oral treatment, emphasizing its efficacy and tolerability.

For Novo Nordisk, this trial represented a major setback as it seeks to distinguish CagriSema in a rapidly progressing obesity treatment landscape.

The company will pursue a new phase 3 trial to optimize weight loss, but analysts agree this could delay CagriSema's filing and launch to 2026, allowing Lilly to further solidify its leadership role.

The disappointing outcomes, coupled with Lilly’s expanding pipeline, set the stage for its future growth in obesity treatments.