JP Morgan Downgrades Match Group Inc

Investing.com — JP Morgan has downgraded Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH) from "overweight" to "neutral" and reduced its price target from $40 to $33 due to ongoing struggles with Tinder’s turnaround.

Limited Visibility on Tinder’s Future

The brokerage emphasized that there is limited visibility concerning the timing and magnitude of Tinder’s recovery. Stabilizing Tinder’s user and revenue trends has proven to be more challenging than expected, with growth unlikely to resume until 2027.

Stock Performance

Shares of the parent company of Tinder decreased by 0.7%, reflecting a 14% loss in value year-to-date.

Revenue Estimates & Industry Trends

JPMorgan has reduced its revenue estimates for Tinder by 10% for 2026, projecting a 6% decline in 2025 and flat performance in 2026. The analyst observed that global online dating expenditures remained stagnant in 2024, expecting muted growth to persist in 2025.

Industry Consolidation & AI-driven Innovations

The brokerage views industry consolidation as a plausible scenario in the near future but remains skeptical about the feasibility of taking companies private. Match Group aims to leverage AI-driven product innovation and social integrations to revive Tinder’s growth; however, JPMorgan cautioned that successful execution is vital. Possible upside may arise from increasing the focus on the company’s dividend yield or activist pressures.

JPMorgan predicts a revenue decline for both Tinder and Bumble (NASDAQ:BMBL) in 2025, forecasting that Tinder will not return to growth until 2027.