Japan’s Core Consumer Price Inflation

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s core consumer price inflation likely increased in November, driven by high rice prices and the reduction of utility subsidies, according to a Reuters poll published on Friday.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which considers oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was anticipated to rise 2.6% in November from a year earlier, up from 2.3% in October, as per a survey of 18 economists.

“On top of higher prices in rice, food and industrial product prices, energy prices were also pushed up as the government trimmed subsidies for electricity and city gas bills,” Mizuho Research & Technologies noted in a report.

The internal affairs ministry will release the November CPI data on Dec. 20 at 8:30 a.m. (Dec. 19 at 2330 GMT).

The poll also indicated that exports are expected to have risen 2.8% in November from the previous year, slowing from a 3.1% increase in October.

Imports were projected to expand by 1% year-on-year, resulting in a deficit of 688.9 billion yen ($4.50 billion). Imports had increased by 0.4% in October.

“Global trade remained sluggish but the yen’s weakness since mid-September likely boosted the value of exports,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

Machinery orders, a volatile leading indicator of capital spending for the upcoming six to nine months, probably rose 1.2% in October from the previous month, following a 0.7% decline in September, according to the poll.

The finance ministry will publish the trade data at 8:50 a.m. on Dec. 18 (2350 GMT on Dec. 17), whereas the Cabinet Office will announce the machinery orders data at 8:50 a.m. on Dec. 16 (2350 GMT on Dec. 15).

($1 = 152.9800 yen)