Bitcoin Market Insights

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Holder Demand

Bitfinex analysts suggest that Bitcoin's upward momentum relies on harmonizing short-term holder (STH) demand with long-term holder (LTH) supply. Currently, STH supply is close to a cycle high of 3.28 million bitcoins, historically linked to the start of bull market peaks. This rise signifies increasing retail interest but also highlights the necessity for incoming demand to absorb profit-taking from LTHs.

The sustained profit-taking by LTHs could pressure Bitcoin's upward movement, with potential limitations to further gains. Analysts note that if LTH's ongoing supply isn't matched by spot demand, a price pullback may result.

ETF Inflows and Bitcoin's $100,000 Potential

As speculation mounts around Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 milestone, analyst Fadi Aboualfa from Copper.co points to ETF inflows as pivotal for this surge. Historical trends show that every 10,000 bitcoins purchased by ETFs has previously raised Bitcoin's price by 2.2%. Currently, with 1.08 million bitcoins held, around $1.9 billion worth of ETF inflows could enable the purchase of an additional 20,000 bitcoins and potentially push prices past the $100,000 mark within a couple of weeks.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a robust influx, totaling $676 million in a single day recently, reinforcing institutional interest and solid support levels. Analyst Valentin Fournier expects that continued institutional invigoration could initiate a breakout in the coming week.

Notably, November marked a record month for spot bitcoin ETFs, with a total of $6.1 billion in inflows. BlackRock's IBIT fund achieved $5.4 billion alone.

In contrast, reports surfaced this week regarding substantial bitcoin transfers linked to the U.S. government, including a transfer of 19,800 BTC (valued at $1.9 billion) to a Coinbase Prime wallet, related to the Silk Road investigation. Despite market challenges, Bitcoin's price has risen approximately 2% over the last 24 hours, trading above $96,000 according to The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page.