Shopify's 2024 Black Friday and Cyber Monday Sales

Shopify’s 2024 Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) sales figures are receiving mixed reactions from analysts. Both Oppenheimer and Mizuho have noted solid growth but raised questions about the broader implications for the company's performance.

Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) reported a BFCM gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $11.5 billion, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase that aligns with consensus expectations and mirrors the growth rate from 2023.

Analyst Insights

• Oppenheimer described the results as “a shade below” their forecast of approximately 25% growth, but still positioned Shopify for a potential full-quarter GMV of $92.9 billion, slightly above the street estimate of $92.2 billion. They observed a strong start to the holiday shopping season, indicating possible redistribution of sales across the quarter. Additionally, positives noted include a 25% increase in unique shoppers and a rise in cross-border transactions to 16%, suggesting stronger international traction. Oppenheimer stated, "We expect the acceleration through the weekend (on tougher comps) will be seen as a mild positive, putting the mid-20%+ revenue growth target back in play."

• Mizuho also acknowledged the solid nature of the BFCM data, pointing to the consistent 24% growth compared to 2023. However, they expressed caution, highlighting a historical trend where BFCM outperforming full-quarter GMV has averaged 3.5 percentage points over the past two years—less evident this year. Mizuho noted slower growth in Shop Pay usage, which decreased to 58% from 60% in 2023, and only a 0.4% increase in average order value to $108.56.

Conclusion

Both firms recognize Shopify's robust performance during BFCM but question its capacity to maintain momentum. Oppenheimer remains optimistic about a mid-20% revenue growth target, while Mizuho exhibits more caution, questioning whether the results justify Shopify’s current valuation levels.