Air Cargo Market Analysis – October

The air cargo market continued its upward trajectory in October, marking the 15th consecutive month of year-on-year growth, with global Cargo Tonne-Kilometers (CTK) increasing by 9.8%, according to IATA's Air Cargo Market Analysis. This performance was accompanied by a month-on-month rise of 5.7% after seasonal adjustments.

International CTK Growth

The international CTK saw a 10.3% rise compared to the previous year, with all regions contributing to this growth. Notably, Latin America and Caribbean carriers led the expansion with a 17.6% increase, while the Middle East-Europe trade lane experienced a significant 15.3% rise in demand.

Global Air Cargo Capacity

The global air cargo capacity, measured in Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometers (ACTK), grew by 5.9% year-on-year in October, reaching new highs. Despite a slight month-on-month decrease after seasonal adjustments, 2024 has been a standout year for cargo capacity, with ACTK up by 8.1% year-to-date.

Regional Contributions to CTK Growth

Carriers from the Asia Pacific region were the largest contributors to the annual CTK growth, followed by North American carriers, taking the second spot for the first time since August 2023. This growth from North American carriers was influenced by a three-day port strike in the USA and the Golden Week holiday in China, which boosted demand for air freight. European airlines contributed 16.6%, while the Middle East accounted for 6.4%.

Demand Drivers

The robust demand on international routes has been driven by the growing e-commerce market in the US and Europe, coupled with ongoing capacity constraints in ocean shipping. Latin America and the Caribbean again topped the growth charts, with North American and Asia Pacific airlines also reporting significant increases.

Load Factors and Capacity

Air cargo load factors improved, indicating a potential rise in airline revenue and profitability. In terms of capacity, international belly-hold capacity continued its 43rd consecutive month of yearly growth, while dedicated freighter capacity also saw a seventh consecutive month of growth.

Cost Trends

In terms of costs, global jet fuel prices fell by 25.7% year-on-year, despite a monthly increase, which bodes well for airline operating expenses. Meanwhile, air cargo yields, including surcharges, grew by 1.2% month-on-month and 10.6% year-on-year, reaching 49% above 2019 levels.

Economic Indicators

Industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and global goods trade rose by 2.4% from the previous year, despite a monthly contraction. Global manufacturing activity indicated expansion in October, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 50.9.

Consumer price inflation in major economies remained within central banks' target rates, with the U.S. and EU experiencing slight increases, while Japan saw a decrease. China's lower inflation rate raised concerns about economic slowdown, which could impact air cargo exports. Producer Price Index (PPI) trends varied, with increases in the U.S. and Japan potentially affecting production costs and air cargo demand, while deflation in China and the EU might lead to lower production costs and potentially boost exports.

Overall, the air cargo industry's performance in October underscores a sustained demand for air freight services amid varying global economic indicators.

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