Japan October inflation likely eased, exports picked up - Reuters poll

investing.com 15/11/2024 - 04:45 AM

Japan's Consumer Inflation Expected to Cool in October

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan's core consumer inflation likely cooled for the second straight month in October due to slower growth in energy prices, as indicated by a Reuters poll conducted on Friday.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, is anticipated to have risen 2.2% in October compared to a year earlier, down from 2.4% growth in September, according to a poll of 19 economists.

Analysts at SMBC Nikko Securities noted, "The base effect of the government's halving of subsidies for electricity and city gas bills in October last year is expected to show, and growth in energy prices is expected to slow."

The internal affairs ministry is set to release the October CPI data on Nov. 22 at 8:30 a.m. Japan time (Nov. 21 at 2330 GMT).

A Reuters poll conducted from Oct. 3-11 indicated a slim majority of economists projecting the Bank of Japan to maintain current rates at its December meeting, although nearly 90% predict increases by the end of March. However, the yen's considerable weakening has raised import costs, affecting households.

Additionally, the poll indicated a 2.2% increase in exports for October, reversing the 1.7% decline seen in September. Imports are believed to have decreased by 0.3% year-over-year, resulting in a trade deficit of 360.4 billion yen ($2.30 billion), compared to a 2.1% increase in September.

Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, stated, "Although the U.S. economy is still holding firm, overall global trade is in a sluggish state."

In a related note, machinery orders, a highly volatile but leading indicator of capital spending for the next six to nine months, are projected to rise by 1.9% in September, following a 1.9% drop in August based on the poll results.

Important Dates:
Trade data: Nov. 20 at 8:50 a.m. (2350 GMT Nov. 19)
Machinery orders data: Nov. 18 at 8:50 a.m. (2350 GMT Nov. 17)

($1 = 156.4100 yen)




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