Happy U.S. Election Day!

In today's newsletter, we explore the potential impact of a win for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris on crypto, the recent movement of billions in BTC by Mt. Gox, bitcoin mining difficulty reaching over 100 trillion, and more.

If Trump Wins and Fulfills His Promises, Ross Ulbricht Will Be Free and Gary Gensler Out of a Job

A U.S. presidential victory for Donald Trump could result in a pardon for Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht and the firing of SEC Chair Gary Gensler, while a Kamala Harris win's impact remains uncertain.

• Donald Trump has rebranded himself as a pro-crypto candidate, promising to transform the U.S. into a bitcoin mining "powerhouse," create a national strategic bitcoin reserve, and reduce regulations on the industry.
• Recently, Trump became involved in a crypto venture with his sons called World Liberty Financial, which offers DeFi lending and plans to venture into tokenized real estate.
• Kamala Harris’s crypto stance has been less clear; she publicly stated in September that the U.S. would invest in blockchain technology under her administration.
• In October, her campaign indicated she would develop a regulatory framework to protect digital asset users, though without detailed policies.
• Analysts at Bernstein predict bitcoin prices could surge to $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump wins, but fall to $50,000 if Harris prevails, with earlier estimates being lower.
• Some, like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, argue that crypto will benefit no matter the election outcome.

Mt. Gox Moves $2.2 Billion Worth of Bitcoin to Unmarked Wallets

Defunct bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox transferred approximately 32,371 BTC, valued at $2.2 billion, to unmarked wallets on Monday, according to analytics from Arkham.

• This move is the largest from Mt. Gox in months, following a smaller transfer of 500 BTC last week.
• It’s unclear whether this transfer is part of creditor repayments following the 2014 security breach, though similar actions have preceded payouts via exchanges like Bitstamp and Kraken.
• Mt. Gox recently postponed its repayment deadline from October 31, 2024, to October 31, 2025.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Breaks Through 100 Trillion for the First Time

Bitcoin mining difficulty surged by 6.2%, reaching an all-time high of 101.7 trillion on Tuesday, following the network's record hash rate of over 750 EH/s last week.

• Mining difficulty, a relative measure of how hard it is to mine a block, adjusts every 2,016 blocks (about two weeks) to maintain a 10-minute average block time.
• Despite challenges post-halving, bitcoin miners are ramping up hash power as leading operators begin to upgrade their rigs and consolidate market share.

Top Daos.fun 'Memefunds' See Market Caps Tank

Significant "memefunds" on Daos.fun, like "ai16z" and "Norm Capital," have witnessed market cap declines exceeding 80% in the past week, with analysts indicating a rapid fading of initial hype.

• Daos.fun, launched in September, is a Solana-based platform allowing users to create and join VC-style "memefunds" represented by respective tokens.
• The significant discrepancies between market caps and actual net asset values suggest potential liquidity issues for holders.
• For instance, "ai16z"’s market cap plummeted from $130 million to $23.8 million despite maintaining a stark premium over its assets under management of just $283,150.
• Concerns about misleading market cap metrics contribute to investor confusion and volatility.

ZachXBT's Unintentionally Created Token Reaches $3.4 Million Market Cap

A token unintentionally created by blockchain investigator ZachXBT has attained a $3.4 million market cap.

• ZachXBT previously launched an NFT collection on the Base network via the Zora protocol, but the NFTs were automatically converted to ERC-20 tokens that are now attracting speculation.
• ZachXBT expressed frustration over the lack of clarity in the Zora interface regarding the automatic minting of meme tokens alongside NFTs.

In the Next 24 Hours

• Eurozone PPI figures will be released at 4 a.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by U.S. mortgage data at 7 a.m.
• ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 9 a.m.
• Money Expo Qatar will begin in Doha.

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