BCA Research Forecasts November Downturn in Global Equities

Investing.com — A quant model from BCA Research predicts a downturn in global equities this November, advising an underweight position on stocks in favor of bonds and cash.

According to BCA, the model indicates weaker performance in equities throughout the month, consistent with their outlook that "global equities will weaken in November."

Sector Focus

The model suggests a defensive approach in the U.S. market, prioritizing sectors such as:
– Utilities
– Health Care
– Real Estate
– IT

Regional Allocation

BCA maintains a preference for U.S. equities over international stocks, believing they may perform better as volatility continues.

Asset Positioning

The firm reduced its duration recommendation further in October and is keeping a neutral stance on duration for November.

Currency and Commodities Outlook

The U.S. dollar is expected to move "sideways to slightly stronger," indicating limited fluctuations in currency markets.

In commodities, the model remains neutral on oil, predicting limited upside, while copper has been downgraded to "underweight" due to softer demand.

Gold remains one of the preferred assets, although enthusiasm for it has lessened recently.

Overall, BCA’s quant model favors a more cautious strategy this November, emphasizing safer assets like bonds and cash as markets prepare for potential equity declines.