GSK Vaccine Sales Forecast Cut Amid Weak Q3 Performance

By Yadarisa Shabong and Maggie Fick

(Reuters) – GSK announced on Wednesday that its vaccine sales are expected to decline this year. This follows a disappointing performance in the third quarter for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and shingles vaccines, resulting in shares dropping by as much as 4.1%.

The British drugmaker now anticipates a low-single-digit percentage decrease in 2024 vaccine sales, revising its earlier prediction of low- to mid-single-digit growth. This marks the second forecast cut this year, undermining plans to position the vaccine sector as a significant growth driver.

GSK CEO Emma Walmsley’s expectation of blockbuster sales from the RSV vaccine, Arexvy, has encountered challenges after the U.S. public health agency tightened age recommendations and postponed approvals for adults under 60. Additionally, this year’s RSV season has been weaker, with U.S. health authorities prioritizing vaccinations for other diseases, including COVID-19.

Sales of Arexvy fell 72% to £188 million ($244.40 million) in the quarter ending September 30, failing to meet market expectations of £238 million. Likewise, sales of the shingles vaccine, Shingrix, decreased by 7% to £739 million, also falling short of estimates.

Despite the short-term pressures on its vaccine offerings, Walmsley emphasized strong medium- and long-term prospects for both Arexvy and Shingrix. GSK reported core earnings per share of 49.7 pence on sales of £8.01 billion, surpassing analyst predictions of 43.6 pence on approximately £8 billion in sales, maintaining its full-year sales and earnings forecasts.

Walmsley stated, "We are on track to deliver our 2024 guidance, and we are even more confident in our 2026 and 2031 outlooks." The company did not provide expectations for 2025.

Since taking charge in 2017, Walmsley has focused GSK on growth within cancer and infectious diseases to offset declining revenues from patent expirations.

Earlier this month, GSK settled most U.S. lawsuits concerning its heartburn drug, Zantac, for $2.2 billion and incurred a £1.8 billion charge in the preceding quarter related to this settlement. This resolution has cleared a cloud that weighed on GSK shares for over two years.

However, analysts indicate that the struggling vaccine segment, particularly the drop in Shingrix sales in the U.S. and China, alongside disappointing RSV results, has created renewed concerns about the company’s stock. As of 0958 GMT, GSK shares were down 3.9%, hitting their lowest point since November 2023.

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