Bitcoin Price Outlook Ahead of U.S. Elections
The price of bitcoin may surge ahead of the U.S. elections on November 5. Analysts, however, caution that a sell-off could follow the results, regardless of the winner.
Profit-Taking and Support Levels
Edouard Hindi, Chief Investment Officer at Tyr Capital, stated that profit-taking could weigh on bitcoin's price after the results are announced, but he believes dip buyers will maintain strong support below $60,000. He is confident that irrespective of the election outcome, bitcoin is likely to regain momentum in the medium term, aiming for new highs in 2024.
Expected Growth Factors
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, emphasized similar views, stating that bitcoin is set for significant growth as Americans prepare for the elections. He noted several factors contributing to this potential rise, particularly an expected interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The market anticipates a 25 basis point cut on November 7, which would bring rates to the 4.5% to 4.75% range, indicative of a need for adjustments to stimulate economic growth.
Lee pointed out that the two-day interval between the U.S. elections and the Fed’s rate decision could heavily influence bitcoin's price trajectory, which may sway based on the election results, particularly if a pro-bitcoin candidate wins.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin Sell Pressure
Lee also highlighted upcoming events that could impact market dynamics post-election, notably Microsoft's upcoming vote on bitcoin investment during its 2024 annual shareholder meeting in early December. If the board votes against the investment, it might dampen market enthusiasm. Conversely, if they decide to invest, it could propel the market upward.
With a 70% confidence interval, Lee projects that bitcoin could trade between $66,000 and $75,000 within the next week, while Ethereum may range from $2,350 to $3,200. Improving liquidity could also boost activity in altcoins.
Market Analysis and Outlook
Donald Trump's recent appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast has attracted over 32 million viewers, increasing his Polymarket odds to above 66%. Despite the association of crypto with the "Trump Trade," analysts from QCP Capital noted a weakening correlation between bitcoin and Trump's odds.
According to these analysts, bitcoin has only increased 8% in October, compared to a typical rise of 21%, which would mark its fourth-worst October performance over the last decade if prices hold. Currently, bitcoin is trading at $68,500, while the global cryptocurrency market cap stands at $2.42 trillion, reflecting a 0.9% decrease over the past 24 hours according to Coinglass data.
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