Analysts' Forecast for U.S. Crude and Product Balances

Analysts at Macquarie have issued their forecast for the week ending September 27, indicating minimal changes in U.S. crude and product balances.

Crude Inventories

They project that crude inventories will stay largely unchanged, with a small increase of only 0.1 million barrels. This marks an adjustment from their prior estimate of a 3.6 million barrels build, especially after a draw of 4.5 million barrels for the week ending September 20.

Factors Affecting Crude Balance

Macquarie outlines several factors affecting this week's crude balance:
– Refineries are expected to reduce their crude runs slightly by about 0.2 million barrels per day.
– Net imports are anticipated to remain largely unchanged, with only a minor drop in exports and a small decline in imports of 0.1 million barrels per day.
– The timing of cargo arrivals is noted as a potential source of volatility, indicating ongoing complexities in the crude market.

Domestic Supply

Despite a weak production report from last week, Macquarie expects a rebound, projecting an increase of 0.4 million barrels per day. This occurs even amid ongoing disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a modest rise in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory is predicted, with an increase of 0.7 million barrels.

Product Forecast

On the product side, analysts forecast a draw in distillate stocks of about 1.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories are expected to decline slightly by 0.3 million barrels, while jet fuel stocks are likely to remain steady.

Overall, the analysts project that implied demand for these three products will be around 14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending September 27.

The Macquarie analysis offers a practical perspective on the current crude and product balances, acknowledging market uncertainties while anticipating some stability in the near future.