Australia Revises Resource and Energy Export Earnings Downward

By Lewis Jackson

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia has slightly revised down its forecasts for resource and energy export earnings due to lower commodity prices and a stronger currency impacting government revenue.

Australia now expects commodity export earnings to decrease by about 10% to A$372 billion ($256 billion) for the year ending 30 June 2025, down from a previous forecast of A$380 billion in June. Last year's revenues stood at A$415 billion.

The decline is anticipated to continue into 2026, albeit at a slower pace, with estimates hitting A$354 billion.

The drop in commodity prices is attributed to slower economic growth in developed nations, partly due to higher interest rates, and a slowdown in China, a significant market for steel and other commodities.

Australia’s largest export, iron ore, has been particularly affected by the downturn in the Chinese property market, with prices falling by about a third this year.

The forecast predicts iron ore export revenue will decrease to A$99 billion in the year ending 30 June 2026, down from A$138 billion last year.

Prices for many resources included in the report, such as nickel and lithium—key for renewable energy—are also lower. Increased supply from Indonesia has led some Australian nickel mines to close.

($1 = 1.4550 Australian dollars)