Election Odds

The odds of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris winning the November presidential election have risen to 50% on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, tying with former U.S. President Donald Trump.

In a market with over $732 million in bets, Harris’ odds increased over the weekend from around 46% last Thursday to reach equilibrium, as reported by Polymarket. The Democratic Party candidate had taken the lead over Trump two weeks ago, indicating that election odds have remained volatile this month.

Trump previously held a majority of 72% on July 16, before current U.S. President Joe Biden withdrew and endorsed Harris.

Among critical swing states, Trump led Harris in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, while Harris led in Michigan and Wisconsin. The two candidates tied in Pennsylvania.

Last Friday, independent party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced the suspension of his campaign for the 2024 election and expressed support for Trump, sharing similar crypto-friendly views.

Trump has maintained a pro-crypto stance throughout his campaign, announcing his support for a decentralized finance project called “The DeFiant Ones,” led by his sons. The project recently renamed its Telegram channel to “World Liberty Financial.” Trump has vowed to end what he calls an “unlawful and un-American crackdown” on the U.S. crypto industry.

Conversely, Harris has not directly expressed support for the blockchain and crypto industry, although a senior campaign adviser stated she plans to support measures to promote the growth of the digital asset industry.