Web3 Accelerator Outlier Ventures

Outlier Ventures, a Web3 accelerator, suggests it's time to abandon the notion of a four-year cycle for Bitcoin, noting its recent poor price performance after the latest halving.

Key Points

• Jasper De Maere, head of research at Outlier Ventures, reports the worst performance for Bitcoin post-halving since 2016.
• The latest Bitcoin halving was on April 20, reducing miners' rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
• Bitcoin's price is down about 8% since this halving, contrasting with significant gains from previous halvings: 739% after 2012, 10% post-2016, and 22% after 2020.
• De Maere argues that halvings have diminished in fundamental impact on BTC's price, though there might still be some psychological effects.
• The current market characteristics have made the impact of miners' rewards negligible, reducing its influence on price significantly.
• The price jump following the 2020 halving coincided with other market factors, including high global liquidity post-COVID.
• De Maere criticizes the argument that ETF approvals pulled forward demand, stating that halvings represent supply-side factors, while ETF approvals are demand-driven.
• Outlier Ventures remains positive about the overall market despite questioning the relevance of the four-year cycle.