Standard Chartered's Digital Assets Research on Bitcoin

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, shared insights on the potential influence of Middle East risks and U.S. presidential election dynamics on Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

Kendrick noted that while concerns in the Middle East may push Bitcoin below $60,000, this could create a buying opportunity due to Donald Trump's rising chances in the presidential race. He stated:

> "Risk concerns related to the Middle East seem destined to push bitcoin below $60,000 before the weekend, but positions like the $80,000 call options suggested the dip should be bought into."

Election Probabilities Shift

Recent fluctuations in U.S. presidential race odds showed Trump's likelihood increasing by about 1%, while Kamala Harris's chances declined equally. Current probabilities indicate Harris at 49% and Trump at 50% for the November election.

Kendrick explained:

> "Geopolitical concerns may push prices lower, yet these very concerns seem to increase Trump's odds, potentially improving bitcoin's post-election outlook."

A potential Trump victory is seen as beneficial for cryptocurrencies due to his engagement in Bitcoin 2024 and a decentralized finance (DeFi) project called World Liberty, suggesting his administration would support pro-crypto policies. Conversely, a Harris win could negatively impact Bitcoin due to delayed regulatory advancements.

Market Dynamics and Bitcoin Call Options

Recent market trends indicate strong demand for Bitcoin call option positions, a sign of traders betting on price increases. Kendrick pointed out:

> "The amount of call option open interest for the 27 December expiry at an $80,000 strike price on Deribit jumped by 1300 bitcoin over the last two days."

He also stated that Bitcoin is not a safe haven against geopolitical issues like gold but serves as a hedge against traditional finance challenges.

As of the last report, Bitcoin's price decreased approximately 0.8%, resting around $60,638 by 5:53 a.m. ET.